So when it IS hotter, do we sell fewer tickets? Here’s what Christian found:

 

Observations:

  • Our 5 hottest years on record : 2016, 2015, 2005, 2002 & 2001
  • Our 5 smallest festival audiences : 2016, 2015, 2003, 2002 & 2001
  • The data illustrates that of the 5 extremes, 4 of them directly correlate (2001,2002, 2015 & 2016)
  • 2003 does show a relationship between temperature and ticket sales while 2005 seems to be an anomaly:
    • We can identify that 2003’s sales are generally following an upward trend (that stems from 2001 to 2006)
    • Additionally as we see the effects of El Niño decrease from 2002 to 2003, ticket sales did rise by around 6,000, this could be attributed to other factors (like overall sales rising over a 5 year period) but a relationship could also be observed
    • 2005 seems to be the key anomaly, it does not appear as an El Niño year by the National Weather Center but it’s our hottest year on record at 90 degrees. However while ticket sales remained healthy, it should be noted that there was a dip from the year prior and the one after, while the temperature also shifted, therefore a relationship can be observed as illustrated in the graph above
  • No high selling year (2004, 2006, 2009, 2010 & 2011) has an average temperature above 85 degrees

Conclusion:
While year to year relatively small rises and falls in temperature do not appear to actively affect our ticket sales, as illustrated from 2009 to 2011, there is an observable relationship between ticket sales and temperatures in the high extremes. One can conclude that while lower temperatures do not positively affect our ticket sales, that higher temperatures do negatively affect our overall sales. It appears that once we hit a festival average of above 85 degrees we not only face a decrease in ticket sales but also have issues with venues being able to keep air conditioning units functioning. With the exception of 2005, we can also assert that forecasts of El Niño Peak years will have a negative impact on our sales. While it is impossible to predict the weather with enough advance to properly alter our festival dates year by year an argument can be made, as illustrated in the graph from 2004 to 2006 and moreso from 2014 to 2016, that our audience is on average much more hesitant to purchase tickets when the average festival temperature rises over 85 degrees.

 

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